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Talking of predictions born of BBC predictability (thanks again to Hippiepooter for that phrase)...
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Not a sheep, who knows the ways of the BBC as well as anyone and who has been on this story for months, made a prediction yesterday about the BBC poll tracker. Guess what? It came true:
http://notasheepmaybeagoat.blogspot.com/2010/05/poll-tracker-on-money.html
http://notasheepmaybeagoat.blogspot.com/2010/05/opinion-polls-and-bbc.html
Showing posts with label Poll Tracker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poll Tracker. Show all posts
Sunday, 2 May 2010
Tuesday, 27 April 2010
WELL HUNG
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Before I leave for a second longer-than-usual day at work, here's the latest post on the BBC's live election blog:
0621: Three new polls out today show how close the race is now between the three biggest parties - with only 4- 5% between them. A ComRes poll for ITV News puts the Tories on 32%, Lib Dems on 31% and Labour on 28%. An ICM poll for the Guardian puts the Tories on 33%, Lib Dems on 30% and Labour on 28% and a YouGov survey for the Sun puts the Tories on 33%, Lib Dems on 29% and Labour on 28%. A three-horse race it is then - expect the hung parliament chatter to continue.
They mentioned these polls yesterday evening (as did Michael Crick, who was almost salivating over them). Now they mention them again. They haven't done that before. I (rhetorically) wonder why!
That last sentence in the BBC post (and can't you just smell the enthusiasm in it!!) - "A three-horse race it is then - expect the hung parliament chatter to continue" - is a prediction anyone could have made, given the sheer amount of chatter on the subject across the BBC yesterday.
Before I leave for a second longer-than-usual day at work, here's the latest post on the BBC's live election blog:
0621: Three new polls out today show how close the race is now between the three biggest parties - with only 4- 5% between them. A ComRes poll for ITV News puts the Tories on 32%, Lib Dems on 31% and Labour on 28%. An ICM poll for the Guardian puts the Tories on 33%, Lib Dems on 30% and Labour on 28% and a YouGov survey for the Sun puts the Tories on 33%, Lib Dems on 29% and Labour on 28%. A three-horse race it is then - expect the hung parliament chatter to continue.
They mentioned these polls yesterday evening (as did Michael Crick, who was almost salivating over them). Now they mention them again. They haven't done that before. I (rhetorically) wonder why!
That last sentence in the BBC post (and can't you just smell the enthusiasm in it!!) - "A three-horse race it is then - expect the hung parliament chatter to continue" - is a prediction anyone could have made, given the sheer amount of chatter on the subject across the BBC yesterday.
Sunday, 18 April 2010
DREAM ON SHAUN!
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Shaun Ley talked about the latest polls on today's The World This Weekend and emphasised that the Conservatives are "the biggest casualties" and adds "a word of caution" too: "In two of the polls no more than four points separate the three biggest parties and since the margin of error in any poll is 3 points we may actually be looking at a statistical dead heat". That's very true. But I've "a word of caution" for Shaun too: That margin of error might also mean that we could be looking at as much as a 10 point Tory lead over Labour. It works both ways.
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UPDATE: Here's an interesting spot from Umbongo on the latest Biased BBC open thread:
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As a matter of interest, on Friday evening while BBC 24 was bigging up the YouGov poll and Cleggie, the YouGov poll was the only poll mentioned and noted on the ticker tape at the foot of the screen, Sky News - on a similar ticker-tape - displayed the results of ALL the current polls (about 5-10 seconds per poll) AFAIAA throughout the evening. Thus the state broadcaster edited out any indication that the YouGov poll might not be the only news in town. On Sky News meanwhile - which is owned by the same outfit which commissioned the YouGov poll in the first place - actually supplies impartial information (ie all the poll data available).
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UPDATE II: It looks as if Shaun Ley's wishful thinking was just that!
2020: Latest poll - this time YouGov's daily one for the Sun - shows the Lib Dems in the lead on 33%, Conservatives 32%, Labour 26%, Others 8%. Polling was carried out on Saturday and Sunday.
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Not even David Cowling can spin this one for Labour:
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2106: On the latest poll from YouGov, our top poll analyst David Cowling says: "The normal margins of error make it unclear whether the Lib Dems or the Conservatives are really in first place but no dispute that Labour is third."
Shaun Ley talked about the latest polls on today's The World This Weekend and emphasised that the Conservatives are "the biggest casualties" and adds "a word of caution" too: "In two of the polls no more than four points separate the three biggest parties and since the margin of error in any poll is 3 points we may actually be looking at a statistical dead heat". That's very true. But I've "a word of caution" for Shaun too: That margin of error might also mean that we could be looking at as much as a 10 point Tory lead over Labour. It works both ways.
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UPDATE: Here's an interesting spot from Umbongo on the latest Biased BBC open thread:
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As a matter of interest, on Friday evening while BBC 24 was bigging up the YouGov poll and Cleggie, the YouGov poll was the only poll mentioned and noted on the ticker tape at the foot of the screen, Sky News - on a similar ticker-tape - displayed the results of ALL the current polls (about 5-10 seconds per poll) AFAIAA throughout the evening. Thus the state broadcaster edited out any indication that the YouGov poll might not be the only news in town. On Sky News meanwhile - which is owned by the same outfit which commissioned the YouGov poll in the first place - actually supplies impartial information (ie all the poll data available).
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UPDATE II: It looks as if Shaun Ley's wishful thinking was just that!
2020: Latest poll - this time YouGov's daily one for the Sun - shows the Lib Dems in the lead on 33%, Conservatives 32%, Labour 26%, Others 8%. Polling was carried out on Saturday and Sunday.
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Not even David Cowling can spin this one for Labour:
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2106: On the latest poll from YouGov, our top poll analyst David Cowling says: "The normal margins of error make it unclear whether the Lib Dems or the Conservatives are really in first place but no dispute that Labour is third."
Saturday, 17 April 2010
COME AGAIN?
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David Cowling, editor of the BBC Political Research Unit, has posted this today on the BBC website's Poll Watch: Analysis:
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SATURDAY UPDATE:
A Sun newspaper poll, carried out after the TV debate, suggests Labour are in third place on 28% (down 3%), with the Lib Dems on 30% (up 8%) and the Conservatives 33% (down 4%). Applying the figures from The Sun poll, which came from a YouGov survey of 1,290 people, to the BBC News website's election seat calculator, results in the following: Labour 276 seats; Conservatives 245 seats; Lib Dems 100 seats; Others 29 seats.
This is the first national poll sampled after Thursday's debate. Clearly the findings, if confirmed by the polls expected on Sunday, are important. It is worth pointing out that the two point difference between the Liberal Democrats and Labour is within normal sampling error, so it does not mean Labour is definitively in third place.
Although the headline focus may be on the Liberal Democrats appearing ahead of Labour we should not ignore the poll's suggestion that the Conservative fall in support is bigger than Labour's.
Perhaps it is best to consider this single poll as an immediate referendum on Thursday night's debate, until we have evidence, if any, that it represents the settled will of British voters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8626154.stm
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Why does Mr Cowling emphasize the possibility of a sampling error concerning the 2% Lib Dem lead over Labour but ignore it when foregrounding the additional 1% fall in support by the Conservatives (4% compared to 3% for Labour)? Surely we 'should not ignore' that the 'normal sampling error' also 'does not mean' 'that the Conservative fall in support is' 'definitively' ' bigger than Labour's'.
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David Cowling, editor of the BBC Political Research Unit, has posted this today on the BBC website's Poll Watch: Analysis:
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SATURDAY UPDATE:
A Sun newspaper poll, carried out after the TV debate, suggests Labour are in third place on 28% (down 3%), with the Lib Dems on 30% (up 8%) and the Conservatives 33% (down 4%). Applying the figures from The Sun poll, which came from a YouGov survey of 1,290 people, to the BBC News website's election seat calculator, results in the following: Labour 276 seats; Conservatives 245 seats; Lib Dems 100 seats; Others 29 seats.
This is the first national poll sampled after Thursday's debate. Clearly the findings, if confirmed by the polls expected on Sunday, are important. It is worth pointing out that the two point difference between the Liberal Democrats and Labour is within normal sampling error, so it does not mean Labour is definitively in third place.
Although the headline focus may be on the Liberal Democrats appearing ahead of Labour we should not ignore the poll's suggestion that the Conservative fall in support is bigger than Labour's.
Perhaps it is best to consider this single poll as an immediate referendum on Thursday night's debate, until we have evidence, if any, that it represents the settled will of British voters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8626154.stm
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Why does Mr Cowling emphasize the possibility of a sampling error concerning the 2% Lib Dem lead over Labour but ignore it when foregrounding the additional 1% fall in support by the Conservatives (4% compared to 3% for Labour)? Surely we 'should not ignore' that the 'normal sampling error' also 'does not mean' 'that the Conservative fall in support is' 'definitively' ' bigger than Labour's'.
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Wednesday, 17 February 2010
BURYING BAD POLLS
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An ongoing story on Not a Sheep's blog is the way the BBC News website's POLL TRACKER fails to be quickly updated (or not updated at all) whenever the Conservatives' poll lead over Labour widens. I can do no better than lift the entire latest installment of the story and plant it here:
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It would seem that the BBC are back to their old tricks as their Poll Tracker has not yet been updated with this weekend's Com Res poll that showed the Conservatives up 2% at 40%, Labour down 2% at 29% and the Lib Dems up 2% at 21%. The BBC are still showing as their latest poll the Populus poll from 8 Feb that showed Labour narrowing the gap and formed the basis of more Labour catching the Tories stories and speculation about hung Parliaments.
I have complained to the BBC again, I wonder if I will receive the same reply that I received the first time I complained "Regrettably this poll was missed, but it has now been added to the polltracker." or the one I received the last time I complained "We have had some minor technical problems with the polltracker which are being rectified this morning. Both polls will shortly appear. Please be assured there is no intent to distort the data in favour of any of the main parties."
I will report back...
Meanwhile it is interesting that Poll Tracker has been moved from its prominent position under "FEATURES, VIEWS, ANALYSIS" just under the headline stories on the Politics news home page to one near the bottom of that page. I wonder if this is in readiness for reporting bad polling news for Labour and if it will return to prominence when a positive for Labour poll appears? I will report back...
Thanks to commentator Llew for the spot that the BBC were up to their old tricks again. http://notasheepmaybeagoat.blogspot.com/2010/02/poll-tracker-update.html
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This was at 8 o'clock last night. Ten hours later & there's still no update to the Poll Tracker - four days after the ComRes poll came out in 'The Independent'!
An ongoing story on Not a Sheep's blog is the way the BBC News website's POLL TRACKER fails to be quickly updated (or not updated at all) whenever the Conservatives' poll lead over Labour widens. I can do no better than lift the entire latest installment of the story and plant it here:
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It would seem that the BBC are back to their old tricks as their Poll Tracker has not yet been updated with this weekend's Com Res poll that showed the Conservatives up 2% at 40%, Labour down 2% at 29% and the Lib Dems up 2% at 21%. The BBC are still showing as their latest poll the Populus poll from 8 Feb that showed Labour narrowing the gap and formed the basis of more Labour catching the Tories stories and speculation about hung Parliaments.
I have complained to the BBC again, I wonder if I will receive the same reply that I received the first time I complained "Regrettably this poll was missed, but it has now been added to the polltracker." or the one I received the last time I complained "We have had some minor technical problems with the polltracker which are being rectified this morning. Both polls will shortly appear. Please be assured there is no intent to distort the data in favour of any of the main parties."
I will report back...
Meanwhile it is interesting that Poll Tracker has been moved from its prominent position under "FEATURES, VIEWS, ANALYSIS" just under the headline stories on the Politics news home page to one near the bottom of that page. I wonder if this is in readiness for reporting bad polling news for Labour and if it will return to prominence when a positive for Labour poll appears? I will report back...
Thanks to commentator Llew for the spot that the BBC were up to their old tricks again. http://notasheepmaybeagoat.blogspot.com/2010/02/poll-tracker-update.html
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This was at 8 o'clock last night. Ten hours later & there's still no update to the Poll Tracker - four days after the ComRes poll came out in 'The Independent'!
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