Shaun Ley talked about the latest polls on today's The World This Weekend and emphasised that the Conservatives are "the biggest casualties" and adds "a word of caution" too: "In two of the polls no more than four points separate the three biggest parties and since the margin of error in any poll is 3 points we may actually be looking at a statistical dead heat". That's very true. But I've "a word of caution" for Shaun too: That margin of error might also mean that we could be looking at as much as a 10 point Tory lead over Labour. It works both ways.
UPDATE: Here's an interesting spot from Umbongo on the latest Biased BBC open thread:
As a matter of interest, on Friday evening while BBC 24 was bigging up the YouGov poll and Cleggie, the YouGov poll was the only poll mentioned and noted on the ticker tape at the foot of the screen, Sky News - on a similar ticker-tape - displayed the results of ALL the current polls (about 5-10 seconds per poll) AFAIAA throughout the evening. Thus the state broadcaster edited out any indication that the YouGov poll might not be the only news in town. On Sky News meanwhile - which is owned by the same outfit which commissioned the YouGov poll in the first place - actually supplies impartial information (ie all the poll data available).
UPDATE II: It looks as if Shaun Ley's wishful thinking was just that!
2020: Latest poll - this time YouGov's daily one for the Sun - shows the Lib Dems in the lead on 33%, Conservatives 32%, Labour 26%, Others 8%. Polling was carried out on Saturday and Sunday.
Not even David Cowling can spin this one for Labour:
2106: On the latest poll from YouGov, our top poll analyst David Cowling says: "The normal margins of error make it unclear whether the Lib Dems or the Conservatives are really in first place but no dispute that Labour is third."
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